Ball State vs UMass Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Ball State has won two straight, beating Sacramento State 34-17, and enters Wednesday at 3-5 overall and 2-2 in the MAC, seventh in the conference. UMass has gone the other way. A 35-16 loss at UConn was its fourth consecutive defeat, leaving the Minutemen 4-4, 1-3 in conference play and tenth in the MAC. They'll meet at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst at 7:00 pm ET on ESPNU. UMass is favored by 4.5 points, with a total of 48.5. Check our free college football picks for more games.

Ball State Has Found a Way to Win

Ball State's October 24 victory over Sacramento State was its most comfortable result. The Cardinals won 34-17, building on a dramatic 32-31 overtime escape at Bowling Green. Before those wins, Northern Illinois beat Ball State 45-14, Toledo won 39-24 and Kent State took a 26-13 decision. The Cardinals have rediscovered how to finish games. Wednesday offers a chance to extend their winning streak.

Keldric Luster has thrown for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns, although six interceptions have disrupted drives. Running back TJ Horton has 425 yards on 68 carries. Nine of Horton's runs have ended in touchdowns, giving Ball State an option near the goal line. Donovan Hamilton leads the receiving group with 310 yards, while Jamarion McDougle has caught two touchdown passes. The Cardinals need Luster to avoid mistakes when UMass brings pressure.

Injuries: C. Coonrod and D. Talbert are out. J. Smith, C. Breveard, A. Cooper, D. Hamilton and M. Riggins are questionable.

UMass Cannot Afford Another Slow Start

UMass has lost four in a row, and the most recent defeat wasn't close. UConn won 35-16 on October 23 after Buffalo edged the Minutemen 25-18 in overtime the previous week. Miami (Ohio) escaped Amherst with a 20-19 victory, while Eastern Michigan won there 38-14. It's been a frustrating stretch after UMass beat Sacramento State 35-6 in September. The Minutemen have scored 19 or fewer in four consecutive games.

William Watson III has completed 69.6% of his passes for 1,025 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. UMass also has options. Elijah Faulkner leads with 376 rushing yards, while Curtis Kimmons IV has added 308 yards and four scores. T.Y. Harding has caught 28 passes for 327 yards, making him the top receiving target. Timmy Hinspeter leads the defense with 72 tackles. The Minutemen need those pieces working together after repeatedly falling short in close MAC games.

Injuries: J. Washington is out. D. Elliott, P. Watson III, J. Griffin Jr. and T. Harding are questionable.

Key To The Game

Ball State has scored 66 points across its last two games, while UMass managed only 34 in its last two defeats. Horton could be difficult to contain if the Cardinals establish their running game. UMass needs Watson to keep drives moving, and Harding's availability could matter in the passing attack. The Minutemen have been competitive in several conference games without finding the winning play. Ball State must avoid interceptions that could give UMass a shorter field.

Ball State vs UMass Game Pick

• Ball State Cardinals +4.5 (-110)

UMass has the better overall record, but recent performances tell a different story. Ball State has beaten Bowling Green and Sacramento State, while the Minutemen have lost four straight. Horton gives the Cardinals a scoring threat, and Luster has receivers to challenge the UMass secondary. Watson could keep this close at home. Still, getting more than a field goal with a team currently winning games is appealing. I'll take Ball State plus the points.

Ball State vs UMass Over/Under Pick

• Under 48.5 (-110)

UMass hasn't scored 20 points in any of its last four games. Ball State's offense has improved, but the Cardinals were held to 14 by Northern Illinois and 13 by Kent State earlier in October. This matchup could feature plenty of running from Horton, Faulkner and Kimmons, leaving fewer chances for long passing drives. Watson has protected the ball, but UMass hasn't turned that into big scoring totals. I expect a tighter game than the line suggests. Under 48.5 is my pick.