Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Predictions for Monday, November 9, 2026

The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings meet Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in a matchup between two 6-1 teams leading their divisions. Buffalo (1st AFC East) has won three straight, most recently crushing Baltimore 36-10. Minnesota (1st NFC North) saw its four-game winning streak end Sunday with a 19-15 loss to Detroit. The Bills bring a perfect 3-0 road record to Minneapolis, where the Vikings are also unbeaten at 3-0. Buffalo leads the NFL in scoring, while Minnesota has allowed the fewest points. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN and ABC. Win big with our free NFL picks. 

Buffalo Bills Bringing the Points

Baltimore never got close Sunday. Buffalo turned its latest game into a 36-10 rout, extending its winning streak to three. The Bills have won four of five, and their 233 points through seven games lead the league. That's 33.3 per game. Josh Allen's offense has been difficult to contain, though Minnesota offers a tougher assignment. The Vikings have allowed only 93 points, so Buffalo won't necessarily find the same space it enjoyed against Baltimore.

Allen has thrown for 1,793 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also has 270 rushing yards and nine scores, meaning Minnesota can't relax when a passing play breaks down. James Cook III has rushed for 707 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Dalton Kincaid leads the receivers with 401 yards; Khalil Shakir has 354. Greg Rousseau's seven sacks could disrupt Minnesota's passing game. Terrel Bernard has made 51 tackles.

Injuries: Ty Johnson is questionable. Keon Coleman is questionable. Dion Dawkins is questionable. Alec Anderson is questionable. Joshua Palmer is questionable.

Minnesota Vikings Counting on Their Defense

Detroit finally put a mark in Minnesota's loss column. The Vikings fell 19-15 Sunday, their first defeat following four straight victories. Scoring only 15 points was the concern. Minnesota has managed 140 points in seven games, an average of 20.0, and can't count on winning shootouts. What keeps the Vikings dangerous is their defense. Opponents have scored just 93 points, or 13.3 per game. Even when the offense struggles, Minnesota stays within striking distance.

Kyler Murray has 1,022 passing yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions, with a 64.9% completion rate. The passing attack needs more against Buffalo. Aaron Jones Sr. has gained 458 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Justin Jefferson leads the receivers at 335 yards and four scores; T.J. Hockenson has 295 yards and three touchdowns. Minnesota has 25 sacks, led by Andrew Van Ginkel's 6.5 and Dallas Turner's six. Blake Cashman has 64 tackles, while Byron Murphy Jr. owns three interceptions.

Injuries: Andrew Van Ginkel is questionable. Jauan Jennings is questionable. Jay Ward is questionable. Isaiah Rodgers is questionable. Jake Golday is questionable.

Key To The Game

Allen will face pressure. Minnesota has recorded 25 sacks, and two Buffalo offensive linemen are questionable. But keeping Allen inside the pocket isn't stopping him; his nine rushing touchdowns show why. Minnesota needs its defense to set the tone, because Buffalo averages 33.3 points to the Vikings' 20.0.

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Game Pick

• Buffalo Bills -3

The Vikings' home record is spotless, and that 13.3-point defensive average deserves respect. Buffalo brings a different challenge, though. Allen has scored nine rushing touchdowns to go with 11 through the air, and Cook already has 707 yards on the ground. Minnesota may pressure the quarterback, but it must also stop Buffalo from extending plays. Detroit held the Vikings to 15 points last week; another offensive performance like that would put considerable weight on the defense. Rousseau, with seven sacks, can make life difficult for Murray. Buffalo has more scoring routes. I'll lay three points with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Over/Under Pick

• Under 44.5

Buffalo can light up a scoreboard, averaging 33.3 points through seven games. Yet Minnesota hasn't allowed more than 19 in any of its past five contests. The Vikings' own scoring average is just 20.0, and Detroit limited them to 15 last Sunday. This isn't a defense Buffalo can assume will give up easy touchdowns. Minnesota's 25 sacks could force the Bills to work through longer possessions, while the Vikings will need to protect their own quarterback. Allen might still create enough offense to win, but a repeat of Buffalo's recent shootouts looks less likely. Under 44.5.