{"id":36826,"date":"2025-08-20T10:22:54","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T14:22:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=36826"},"modified":"2025-08-20T10:22:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T14:22:56","slug":"western-kentucky-vs-sam-houston-prediction-week-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legacy.winnersandwhiners.com\/news\/college-football\/western-kentucky-vs-sam-houston-prediction-week-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction and Betting Preview | NCAAF Week 0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Liberty is the clear favorite in Conference USA entering the 2025 season, but Saturday’s Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston contest could go a long way toward determining who can challenge the Flames at the top of the league standings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Date and Time<\/td>August 23 at 7pm ET \/ 4pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Point Spread<\/td>Western Kentucky -10.5<\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>61.5 Points<\/td><\/tr>
Location<\/td>L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky<\/td><\/tr>
TV<\/td>CBS Sports Network<\/td><\/tr>
Forecast<\/td>Clear with Temps in the Upper-60s<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 20. Western Kentucky has won each of the prior two meetings since Sam Houston joined the FBS ranks, including a 31-14 road win in Texas last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 Sam Houston State Stats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Schedule<\/strong>: No. 123 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential<\/strong>: +12 (No. 8 Nationally)
Plays per Game<\/strong>: 69.8 (No. 56)
Seconds per Play<\/strong>: 27.5 (No. 100)
Average Time of Possession<\/strong>: 32:12 (No. 13)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sam Houston State on Offense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game<\/strong>: 347.9 (No. 102)
Points per Game<\/strong>: 23.8 (No. 98)
Yards per Play<\/strong>: 4.99 (No. 119)
Offensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 37.4-percent (No. 118)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 40 (No. 123)
Net EPA per Play<\/strong>: +0.01 (No. 73)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sam Houston State on Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 321.5 (No. 22)
Points per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 20.5 (No. 21)
Yards per Play Allowed<\/strong>: 4.78 (No. 13)
Defensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 41.2-percent (No. 74)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 29 (No. 1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 Western Kentucky Stats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Schedule<\/strong>: No. 116 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential<\/strong>: -3 (No. 91)
Plays per Game<\/strong>: 63.8 (No. 117)
Seconds per Play<\/strong>: 26.4 (No. 63)
Average Time of Possession<\/strong>: 27:50 (No. 116)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western Kentucky on Offense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game<\/strong>: 373.5 (No. 82)
Points per Game<\/strong>: 24.9 (No. 92)
Yards per Play<\/strong>: 5.75 (No. 71)
Offensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 42.5-percent (No. 63)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 65 (No. 38)
Net EPA per Play<\/strong>: -0.04 (No. 87)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western Kentucky on Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 397.3 (No. 97)
Points per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 24.6 (No. 62)
Yards per Play Allowed<\/strong>: 5.92 (No. 90)
Defensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 43.6-percent (No. 105)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 57 (No. 73)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Western<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is going to be a transition year for the Bearkats as they play their home games off-campus for stadium reconstruction and welcome in a new coaching staff. If this was later in the season and we had a little bit of data and film to work with, the over in this contest would likely have been a high-rated release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former Sam Houston head coach K.C. Keeler (now at Temple) installed a disciplined approach to the Bearkats’ defense, who finished last season top-25 in the country in yards per game allowed, points per game allowed, yards per play allowed and explosive plays allowed (No. 1 nationally). Those days are over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New head coach Phil Longo wants to throw the ball and play at a brisk pace, which is a steep departure from the previous regime. We would like to see a game or two under the Bearkats’ belt before fully buying into the new system, but we certainly would not be surprised if this game ended with 70+ points. OVER 62 POINTS<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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