{"id":40936,"date":"2026-10-29T09:33:03","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T13:33:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=40936"},"modified":"2026-10-29T09:33:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T13:33:05","slug":"ufc-fight-night-moicano-vs-nolan-picks-predictions-and-odds-october-31-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legacy.winnersandwhiners.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-moicano-vs-nolan-picks-predictions-and-odds-october-31-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Predictions and Odds October 31, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for October 31, 2026 with the main event headlined by Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan<\/strong> in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, October 31<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>2.5 (Over -102 \/ Under -118)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Randy Brown (+245) vs Jacobe Smith (-257)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a classic matchup between a fighter on the way up and one on the way down. Brown has\u00a0 always had the physical tools to be successful. He’s long, athletic, and has good striking ability,\u00a0but he consistently leaves you wanting more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He’s now lost two straight, and his recent\u00a0 performances have lacked aggression and urgency. He looks tentative and doesn’t seem\u00a0 particularly motivated to push for finishes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith, on the other hand, has looked fantastic. He has the athleticism to match Brown and has\u00a0 finished every opponent he’s faced on Contender Series and in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is definitely a step\u00a0 up in competition, but I think Smith will gain confidence once he realizes Brown isn’t going to\u00a0put much pressure on him. That should allow Smith to get comfortable with his striking and start\u00a0 mixing in takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one concern is Smith’s cardio if this reaches the third round, although\u00a0 he has gone the distance and won a decision before. Jacobe Smith at -257 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yana Santos (+223) vs Luana Santos (-233)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At these prices, I have to take Yana. Luana doesn’t generate a ton of striking volume, and much of her success comes from controlling opponents against the fence and accumulating ground\u00a0 control time. That’s effective, but it doesn’t necessarily make her a dominant favorite in this\u00a0 matchup.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yana moves well on the feet, can circle away from pressure, and has the ability to create her own\u00a0control time against the fence. I think she’ll be able to keep this competitive and make Luana\u00a0 work for every position. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This feels like a fight that could be decided by a few close rounds, and I\u00a0 don’t want to lay a big price on either fighter. Yana Santos at +223 is the underdog pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ode Osbourne (-108) vs Cody Durden (+105)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like Ode here, provided he can survive the early portion of the fight. Durden has talked about\u00a0retirement, and while he can look good early with his striking and offensive pressure, he has a\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

tendency to fall apart quickly once the second round begins. His cardio becomes a major  problem, and his effectiveness drops considerably. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Osbourne is coming off a decision loss to an opponent who was subsequently flagged for PEDs, but I think he’s in a good position to bounce back here. He should have the better conditioning\u00a0and be able to increase his activity as Durden slows down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ode gets through the first round\u00a0without taking too much damage, I expect him to take over with more volume and offense in\u00a0 rounds two and three. Ode Osbourne at -108 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zach Reese (-257) vs Mickey Gall (+245)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reese has regressed since joining the UFC, and I’m honestly not sure what he’s particularly good at anymore. His durability has become questionable, his striking is average, and his cardio hasn’t\u00a0 looked very good. His ground game is still solid, though, and that should be enough against this\u00a0 opponent.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gall has major problems of his own. His durability is terrible, his striking isn’t good, and while\u00a0he does have submission ability, I don’t see him consistently getting the takedowns necessary to\u00a0put himself in position to use it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an ugly matchup between two fighters I don’t have much\u00a0confidence in, but Reese should have enough advantages to get the job done. Reese at -257 is the\u00a0pick, although it’s an ugly one<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-223) vs Farman Hasanov (+215)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebosnoyani is a seasoned veteran with excellent striking skills. He’s a dynamic power puncher\u00a0with great footwork, strong defensive awareness, and the ability to create offense from different\u00a0angles. The biggest question in this matchup is his takedown defense, because that’s essentially\u00a0 Hasanov’s entire game.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hasanov depends heavily on getting takedowns and establishing control. When opponents make\u00a0him work for those positions, he starts to tire, and his effectiveness drops off. Lebosnoyani might\u00a0 give up a takedown or two, but I expect him to make Hasanov work extremely hard to keep him\u00a0 down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the fight progresses, Hasanov’s cardio and striking defense should become major\u00a0 problems. I don’t think he’ll be able to handle Lebosnoyani’s offense once he starts slowing\u00a0down. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by finish is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Francis Marshall (-223) vs Dakota Hope (+215)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hope is a big power puncher who comes out swinging for the fences, looking to end fights with\u00a0heavy shots. The problem is that his aggressive style leaves him vulnerable to takedowns, and that’s exactly where Marshall wants this fight. Marshall is a wrestler who relies on takedowns,\u00a0 ground control, and wearing opponents down.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hope also doesn’t have particularly long reach, which could make it difficult for him to close the distance and land those big punches without exposing himself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I expect Marshall to take\u00a0advantage of Hope’s aggressive striking, get underneath his punches, and bring the fight to the\u00a0 ground. Once there, Marshall should be able to control the action and accumulate time on top.\u00a0Francis Marshall at -223 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodrigo Sezinando (-156) vs Theodor Berggren (+150)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither fighter particularly impresses me. Sezinando probably has the better ground game and\u00a0has faced stronger competition, while Berggren looks more comfortable working in the clinch.\u00a0There isn’t a huge difference in overall ability between these two, and I don’t see a reason to be\u00a0overly confident in either side.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Berggren can have success with his striking and make this a competitive fight in the\u00a0clinch. If he can keep Sezinando from consistently establishing control on the ground, he should\u00a0 have opportunities to win rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At these odds, I would rather take my chances with the\u00a0 underdog than lay -156 on a fighter I’m not particularly impressed with. Theodor Berggren at\u00a0 +150 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Julian Erosa (+163) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (-165)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lee appears to have made some improvements in both his durability and cardio. His last fight against Santos was an absolute war, and although he lost, he was still there competing until the\u00a0 very end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was encouraging because it showed he can absorb punishment and maintain his\u00a0 offense over three rounds. His takedown defense remains a concern, but I’m not convinced Erosa\u00a0 has the wrestling ability to exploit that weakness consistently.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Erosa looks like a fighter nearing the end of his career. He needs to find an early finish because\u00a0 when fights extend into the later rounds, he starts breaking down and his striking volume\u00a0disappears. I think Lee can survive the early danger, maintain a higher pace, and outwork Erosa\u00a0 as the fight progresses. Jeong Yeong Lee at -165 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nick Klein (+250) vs Joe Kropschot (-245)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klein has about half a round to one round of effective cardio before everything starts falling\u00a0apart. Once he gets tired, his defense deteriorates, he becomes extremely vulnerable, and\u00a0 opponents have been able to finish him. His striking isn’t particularly good, and while he likes to\u00a0 rely on his ground game, that approach becomes much more difficult against UFC-caliber\u00a0 competition.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kropschot showed tremendous toughness as an underdog on Contender Series. He’s not\u00a0 particularly fast, and his striking defense leaves something to be desired, but he’s durable, has a\u00a0 solid ground game, and his cardio is significantly better than Klein’s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I expect Klein to have some early moments before his conditioning becomes a major issue. Once that happens, Kropschot\u00a0 should be able to take over and find the finish. Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance is the preferred\u00a0 play, with Kropschot by finish as the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Piera Rodriguez (-245) vs Talita Alencar (+223)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alencar has made significant improvements since joining the UFC. She came in with a strong\u00a0grappling background, but her striking and cardio have developed considerably. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her biggest problem remains her size, as she’s undersized for the division. Still, she’s found ways to outwork\u00a0opponents in her last two fights and come away with victories.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodriguez has that same relentless mentality, and she showed it in her recent win over Sam\u00a0 Hughes. Outworking Hughes is not an easy thing to do, but Rodriguez managed to accomplish it.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think she’s the better striker in this matchup, and she has the takedown defense to prevent\u00a0Alencar from consistently getting her grappling going. Rodriguez should be able to neutralize\u00a0Alencar’s offense while landing the cleaner, more effective strikes. Piera Rodriguez at -245 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tainara Lisboa (+426) vs Lucia Szabova (-456)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lisboa can have some success working against the fence, where she uses the clinch and short inside strikes to create offense. Outside of those positions, though, her game is limited. She\u00a0doesn’t strike particularly well at range, has very little ground game, and her cardio becomes a\u00a0 problem as fights progress.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Szabova can be a slow starter, but she has excellent kicks from distance, a good ground game,\u00a0and the ability to find finishes late in fights. I think she’ll be able to survive whatever early success Lisboa has in the clinch and gradually take control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Lisboa begins to tire, Szabova should have more opportunities to land damaging strikes and exploit her weaknesses on the\u00a0 ground. Lucia Szabova by third-round finish is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: <\/strong>Renato Moicano (+113) vs Tom Nolan (-117)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Moicano is a tough fighter to figure out. He’s at his best on the ground, but his wrestling isn’t\u00a0particularly strong, which makes it difficult for him to consistently get fights into his preferred\u00a0 position. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the feet, he’s not a major knockout threat, but he can pepper opponents with jabs,\u00a0accumulate points, and use his striking to create opportunities to get the fight to the ground.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nolan’s game has evolved significantly throughout his UFC career. He used to be a wild striker\u00a0 who relied on his offense, but he’s developed a much more effective wrestling game, using\u00a0takedowns and control time to win fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That adjustment has resulted in five straight victories.\u00a0 If Nolan is the more physical fighter, he should be able to control the clinch and have success\u00a0with takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moicano is dangerous in scrambles and can reverse positions on the ground, so\u00a0Nolan will have to be careful. Ultimately, I think Nolan’s physicality and wrestling will allow\u00a0 him to accumulate more control time and win rounds, provided he avoids getting caught in a\u00a0submission. Nolan at -117 is the slight pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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